Gegli news - OPEC can survive Trump, Putin, and a pullout by Qatar? - 12/7/2018 12:52:07 PM 12:52:07 PM
"It's not OPEC ... Putin and Tramp are currently killing the strings," said one oil analyst.
When the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is held in Vienna on Thursday, this is very high for the real leader of Saudi Arabia, because the cartel opposes low Qatari Qatari oil prices and withdrawals. On the one hand, he wants to stop dissatisfaction with the ranks of the groups, in order to prevent further concerns about further violations, but the willingness of the members to raise oil prices has been unwilling to ridicule President Donald Trump for cheap oil To give
The tensions between Saudi Arabia and Qatar have increased since 2017, when a Saudi-led coalition launched a blockade against Qatar. Qatar has protested that its decision to leave OPEC is political, but its ties to Iran, which are considered by the Middle East experts as a motivating factor in the siege, have contributed to the agreement between the two regional rivals in OPEC.
Jason Tovey, Emerging Markets in Emerging Markets in the Capital Economy at U.K. "Qat's departure has put an element of political uncertainty in the process," he said. This is a greater conflict with Saudi Arabia and its allies in this country. "
Although Qatar's contribution to global oil production is low, it has played an important role in OPEC's policies in reaching consensus and following political decisions. "More broadly, it will be more difficult for OPEC's domestic policy," said Jacob Kirkgard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. As far as you can tell, Qatar has played a pivotal role in OPEC, possibly for Understanding or dialogue between other countries is facilitated. "
"Once again, OPEC needs to change its policy position to reach agreement," Kirkegaard said.
According to Reuters, according to OPEC sources, the cartel plans to produce at least 1.3 million barrels per day by members and also non-Russian countries, but oil market observers suspected that this could To be
Kirkegaard said, "I think that they can announce it, they actually do it, I think it's another matter."
"We think any reduction will be at the lowest end of the spectrum, because officials need to arrange President Tramp with a desire to put oil prices below the scales and prevent wounds in the OPEC equilibrium, Tuvey said.
Energy analysts say Saudi Arabia should be the most out of any reduction in production. John Hall, Alpha Energy Chief, is a U.K. consulting firm. "Saudi Arabia is to be carried here," he said.
The geopolitical wrinkles are that Saudi Arabia is often convinced by Donald Troupm to keep oil prices low. Experts say Mohammed bin Salman, the heir apparent in the kingdom, said in a statement that the massacre of journalist Jamal Kaseggi in the Saudi consulate in Turkey in October probably would not be likely to rob Trump, which the CIA and others The intelligence agencies have denied that the Prince of Tank was behind the killings.
"The MBS does not have other friends, like Russian President Vladimir Putin," Hal said. "In the short term, Tampa puts the MBS where it is hurting and he wants to play with America."
Tom Clown, a global energy analyst at the oil price intelligence service, said the threat to market stability from the regional power struggle, as compared to what was presented by the government of Tramp, shows the gap in Qatar-Saudi Arabia.
"All this uncertainty tends to boost prices in most situations, but this uncertainty - compared to the wild card from Donald Troup and his hawks at his Foreign Ministry - I think if there's a wildcard, Trump may be And he has policies, "he said. The demand is expected to increase by 1.5 million barrels next year [but] if we have a commercial war, if you have a recession, this number has fallen back. "
Hall also claimed that new players are now in control. He said: "These are not computers ... Putin and Tramp are currently killing the strings."